October 10, 2019 (originally unpublished archive from August 24, 2018 with 2019 updates).
Analysis 2016 Election – Trump Won in a Landslide; Major Media Polls Wrong
by Net Advisor™
Archive Found: While researching public polling data, we found this unpublished archive from August 24, 2018 covering discrepancies in polling data. We are finding that there are still dependencies in polling data, so we are releasing this archive with new updates.
EXCERPT/ Background: Major media all got it wrong based on their polling data that was supposed to predict a huge victory for Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton in 2016. As it turns out, GOP candidate Donald J. Trump managed to flip seven Democratic states from 2012 to his favor in 2016.
Despite our massive zero budget, we reviewed our own 2016 predictions. We managed to have more accurate predictions than the major pollsters and posted our analysis and the 2016 election results here.
We also list independent time-stamped predictions for 2020.
WASHINGTON, DC. After a grueling and highly controversial 2016 election season, the results show Donald J. Trump won the U.S. presidency by a decisive electoral margin, while Hillary Rodham Clinton won the popular vote. Here is a breakdown of the actual election results.
[1] Electoral Votes: Trump Wins in a Landslide.
Trump won the Electoral Vote, and this is the only vote that legally and constitutionally counts. A presidential candidate needs 270 Electoral Votes to win the presidency.
2016 Electoral Vote Results:
It took until November 28, just over two weeks for the State Secretary of Michigan to certify their votes showing Trump won this historical Blue State.
The final 2016 results shows Trump won 56.88% of the total Electoral Votes verses 43.12% for Clinton.
The 2016 election results was very close to our own prediction stated in May 2016; where we predicted Trump would win 53% vs 44% for Clinton.
#CNN USER-Opinion Prediction Election 5/17/2016
Hillary 65%
Trump 35%
My predict:#Trump 53#Hillary 44
GOP Other 3%https://t.co/WQCrnfLz23— NetAdvisor.org® (@NetAdvisor) May 18, 2016
One could see from the above that the CNN User-Opinion prediction poll was off by a long shot: 65% thought Clinton would win in 2016 vs 35% win for Trump.
[2] Popular Vote: Clinton Wins the Popular Vote.
According to the New York Times, Clinton is credited with winning the popular vote. However, this is more for statistical data, as it has no legal precedent.
- Trump: 62,821,935 votes (46.1%)
- Clinton: 65,476,535 votes (48.1%)
Trump claimed that he believed he won the popular vote. Factually speaking, Hillary Clinton did receive more actual votes; however this was due to the most populace state in the Union.
“Hillary Clinton’s lead in the popular vote has topped 2.8 million…is due to Clinton’s huge margin of victory in one state — California — where she got a whopping 4.3 million more votes than Trump.”
No one won the majority of the popular vote. Clinton had more votes, but not a majority. She won the popular vote by two percent (48.1% vs. 46.1%), where those extra “popular” votes came from Liberal-leaning California.
- For those who want more info about why the Electoral College is more important than the popular vote, and is constitutionally established by the 12th Amendment in 1804, please read this report.
[3] Obama Diverts Funds for Migrant Voter Registration.
Without approval from Congress, the Obama Administration diverted $19 Million in funds from U.S. Immigration Services to help migrants register to vote. What we don’t know is whether this money was used to register legal new U.S. citizens or for illegal aliens residing in the U.S.
Without approval from Congress, the Obama Administration diverted another $10 Million, in September 2016, just before the November election for the same purpose.
Recall that Democrats sued the Trump Administration in 2019 to block diverting Pentagon funds for national defense/ U.S. border security. A three-judge panel from the California 9th Circuit Court blocked Trump from using excess Pentagon funds for border wall construction.
The U.S. Supreme Court overruled the 9th Circuit Court stating Trump can use said Pentagon funds for border security/ new border wall construction.
Democrats called Trump legally diverting Pentagon funds for national security purposes as “stealing funds” and labeled the U.S. Supreme Court ruling as a “sad day.”
Democrats nor Republicans never questioned or sued President Obama when Obama diverted funds from immigration services to assist migrant voting in the U.S.
[4] Voter Fraud?
AFTER the 2016 election there was voter fraud and or ballot tampering committed by Democrats for example in Indiana, Kentucky, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Wisconsin.
There were also reports in most U.S. states of fake addresses used for voting.
Illegal Alien Voting?
According to a 2014 watchdog report, 14 percent of non-U.S. citizens (illegally) voted in 2008 and 2010.
In 2015, then Governor of California, Jerry Brown (D) signed into law that those who obtain driver licenses are ‘Automatically’ registered to vote. We also know in 2015 that most of the new drivers licenses in California are being issued to non-U.S. citizens and here in the USA illegally.
“The California Department of Motor Vehicles (DMV) reports it has issued 605,000 driver licenses under Assembly Bill 60 (AB 60) since it was implemented on January 2, 2015.”
— California Department of Motor Vehicles, 2015 Stats (website) (PDF)
California also provides voter registration card with welfare applications. We don’t know the true impact of ill-received votes counted in 2016. California did admit however in 2019 that there were some 100,000 voting registration “errors,” and separately some 84,000 votes were counted more than once.
An investigation in California also discovered in 2019 that hackers gained unlawful access to California’s voting data base.
Another report published in 2017 found that Trump lost districts that had higher illegal alien populations.
“(Hillary) Clinton won 17 of the top 20 metro areas for undocumented immigrants, by an average of more than 20 percentage points.”
Despite voter fraud risks, Trump managed to win a landslide of counties in the U.S.
[5] Trump Wins 84% of All U.S. Counties.
An examination of popular vote by county shows a different picture. According to an Associated Press (AP) Report, cited by CBS News, said Hillary Clinton won only 487 counties in the USA, verses Trump winning 2,626.
This means Trump won 84.36% of all counties in the United States (Source: CBS News San Francisco /PDF Archive).
- Trump Counties Won: 2,626 (84.36%)
- Clinton Counties Won: 487 (15.64%)
When Trump said he believed he won the popular vote, maybe he was looking at the map above?
Hillary Clinton has been in a multi-year denial over her election loss in 2016, now claiming that Trump is an “illegitimate President.” Voting data shows a different reality.
Clinton said Trump is a “corrupt human tornado.” If looking for a history of corruption, check out our 19-page report on Hillary Clinton. If we had strong evidence of Trump corruption, we’d be discussing that too. We’ve read endless (political) accusations, but nothing charged or ruled illegal.
Clinton never brings up whether Obama “stole” the DNC nominee from her in 2012? She said she has ruled out on running in 2020, but we think she secretly wants to run. We just don’t see her winning.
[6] House & Senate Seats Moved for Trump in 2016.
In 2016, Republicans retained control over the House by a simple majority.
- House: 238 (R) 194 (D) / 55.09% (R) v. 44.91% (D)
- Senate: 51 (R) 48 (D) + 1 (D) seat up for election.
— Data: CNN (PDF)
By the 2018 Midterm elections, Democrats managed to regain control of the House. This was aided in part by the largest number of “retiring” Republicans since 1992. A total of 34 House Republicans and 18 House Democrats did not seek re-election in 2018.
With special elections in the Senate, Republicans gained +2 seats to 53 holding a decisive majority.
[7] Promises Made. Not Kept.
Many (wealthy), politically left-leaning Hollywood celebrities, musicians, and other artists promised or threatened they would leave the U.S.A if Trump won in 2016.
Some considered moving to Canada and New Zealand. On election night as it was seeming a Trump victory, reports came out saying that Canada’s immigration website crashed due to unusually high web-traffic.
Some Canadians said they don’t want “left-wing nut jobs” moving to their country.
Politically left-leaning celebs would have to spend their own money to fly back and forth to the U.S. to work. But maybe it was the Trump tax-reduction plan that will put millions of more dollars in their pockets than the federal government’s pocket?
We have not seen any mass exodus by celebrities or other elitists to date.
[8] Media, Pundits, Polls Basically All Got It Wrong in 2016.
Many argued there was substantial media bias favoring Clinton, and the polls seemed to suggest such.
The Liberal-leaning Huffington Post tracked 377 polls from 43 pollsters (Source: Huffington Post, 68 pps PDF). As of Election Day, November 8, 2016, the polls showed Clinton Winning 47.3% vs. 42% for Trump.
FiveThirtyEight an ESPN website operating as a “polling aggregation website with a blog created by analyst Nate Silver.”
Mr. Silver is a baseball statistician and writer who is credited for predicting 49 of the 50 state election results in 2008; and all 50 states in 2012.
On the eve of the 2016 election, Mr. Silver missed by a long shot. He projected Clinton had a 75% chance of winning vs. 24% for Trump.
Guess Mr. Silver should stick with baseball? Mr. Silver did correctly predict a GOP win in the Senate, but it was a narrow win.
Aaron Bycoffe and David Wasserman of FiveThirtyEight also incorrectly predicted Clinton would win 51.6% popular vote and 332 Electoral votes vs. 206 for Trump. It was almost the other way around with Trump winning 306 Electoral votes vs. 232 for Clinton.
We assert the prognosticators may have come up with this prediction by looking at the 2012 election results which gives these same electoral numbers. In 2012, Barack Obama won 332 vs Mitt Romney’s 206 Electoral votes.
CNN like pretty much of not most all major media also predicted the wrong outcome of the 2016 election.
On the eve of the Election, even Fox News got it really wrong.
Fox News‘ former news anchor, Megyn Kelly and others even suggested that Red (R) states such as Texas and Georgia were now “in-play.” As for Fox News’ projections for “pink states” (graphic above), Trump won Texas 52.6% v 43.4%; Georgia 51% v 45.9%; Ohio, 52.3% v 43.6% and Alaska 53.9% v 38.2% – all in a landslide for Trump.
It generally appears that all of the major media were wrong about Clinton’s alleged hold in seven 2012 “Blue States:” Florida, Iowa, Michigan, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, and Wisconsin all went to Trump.
Many in the media used Real Clear Politics (RCP) as the ‘gold standard’ for a collection of national polls for 2016.
Before the actual election, RCP Averages Claimed Clinton with 203 Electoral Votes, Trump with 164 and 171 “Toss up” states – meaning those states could go either Clinton or Trump.
Two 2016 Polls Called Correct.
One particular poll conducted by The Los Angles Times and the University of Southern California (USC) showed a general Trump win including by the end of October. I recall listening to some in the major media who discounted this poll because it was ‘new,’ and fell outside of what most all the other polls predicted.
As of one day before the election, the Times/ USC poll predicted a Trump win with a 46.8% chance vs. 43.6% for Clinton. The funny part is the The Los Angles Times‘ Editorial Board endorsed Hillary Clinton.
We challenged a Fox News tweet (as did many in the media) about three polls about how I believed the polls were “far off the mark.”
.@FoxNews @HillaryClinton @realDonaldTrump I'm predicting these polls far off mark until real head-2-head match up https://t.co/57Pdh6Rk1u
— NetAdvisor.org® (@NetAdvisor) March 21, 2016
[9] New York Times Stats Unofficially Called 2016 Election First.
The entire election night I was sorting through what appeared to be mathematical or other algorithm-like programs on-line to see where the election data was headed. The best program I found on-line was by The New York Times – a huge Clinton supporter. The NY Times on-line live program showed that Trump was going to win with 95% certainty, well before their newspaper or rest of the media called it.
The NY Times predicted Trump winning states such as Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Florida, N. Carolina, Arizona, Georgia and Ohio, which turned out to be correct. They missed a few, but predicting voting behavior in all 50 states isn’t easy.
[10] How did we do in Predicting 2016 POTUS?
Gary Johnson and Jill Stein loss is probably obvious, so that one was an easy predict.
.@GovGaryJohnson Forecasting the #obvious: #GaryJohnson and #JillStein Will BOTH Lose 2016 in a *Land Slide*https://t.co/JOY3OwbApI
— NetAdvisor.org® (@NetAdvisor) November 6, 2016
A. Our bigger and longer-term predictions were also correct:
On September 3, 2014 – Over TWO YEARS BEFORE the 2016 Presidential (General) Election, we challenged the claimed ‘conservative’ Glenn Beck on his Hillary win prediction.
@WashTimes @glennbeck "Glenn Beck predicts Hillary Clinton 'is going to win' in 2016" – I'll take that bet – that she will lose.
— NetAdvisor.org® (@NetAdvisor) September 4, 2014
Glenn Beck never responded to us.
B. On Hillary Clinton and Jeb Bush.
On December 17, 2014 (almost two years before the actual election), we stated to the Los Angeles Times in a tweet that both Jeb Bush and Hillary Clinton would ultimately lose but at different times.
@Carlos_S01 @AHMalcolm I'm predicting both (#HillaryClinton and #JebBush ) will lose (1 will lose in primary). Someone else will be POTUS.
— NetAdvisor.org® (@NetAdvisor) December 18, 2014
Thus we felt that Bush and Clinton would not be candidates against each other.
Jeb Bush lost in the Republican primary which we discussed in March 2015, well BEFORE announcing his candidacy.
#JebBush 'severs final corporate ties' to clear path for 2016 run (Which he will lose) http://t.co/JQIDNElger
— NetAdvisor.org® (@NetAdvisor) March 12, 2015
C. On John Kasich.
In January 2016, we predicted that now former Republican Governor of Ohio, John Kasich had no chance of winning POTUS in 2016.
@nytopinion 10,000:1 odds say no chance in hell Kasich will be Potus in 2016. LMK if any takers.
— NetAdvisor.org® (@NetAdvisor) January 30, 2016
No one made that bet with us.
D. On Mitt Romney.
There was early talk about former 2012 presidential candidate and former Governor Mitt Romney (R- MA) might run against Trump, and here was our forecast on that:
.@Drudge_Report_ $19 Trillion says @MittRomney has 0% chance winning POTUS contest https://t.co/GYNgy41Z9b #selfsabotage #GOPselfdestruction
— NetAdvisor.org® (@NetAdvisor) March 7, 2016
No takers on this one.
E. On Hillary Clinton (again).
In January 2016, we reinforced our prediction of Clinton’s 2016 loss.
@HillaryClinton If that's your best campaign slogan, bet 1000:1 it will be a loser. LMK if a taker.
— NetAdvisor.org® (@NetAdvisor) January 21, 2016
No takers on this one either.
F. On a GOP majority.
….and I expected a (R) majority.
@DeusVultCrusade @ross_dutch72083 @catwahler If she runs, I expect her 2 lose the nomination or the election. (R) should gain super-majority
— NetAdvisor.org® (@NetAdvisor) February 25, 2015
Here we were a little off in semantics. GOP did win a majority in the House and Senate in 2016, but not a Super Majority which technically is 2/3rds of Congressional seats.
G. On Senator Marco Rubio.
We also thought that Republican Presidential candidate Marco Rubio would not win any states during the GOP Primary, but he might win a little state.
@realDonaldTrump @DRUDGE_REPORT @Drudge_Report_ @DRUDGE
Predict Rubio will not win any state. OK, MAYBE a token little state.— NetAdvisor.org® (@NetAdvisor) February 27, 2016
Rubio dropped out of the POTUS 2016 race about a month later after losing his home state of Florida to Trump.
H. On Senator Ted Cruz.
As for the Texas Senator Ted Cruz. Despite being a mutual follower on twitter, and as much as we respect the Senator, we had to look at his chances objectively, based on our analysis. Ultimately, we did not see Senator Cruz as POTUS for 2016.
.@JonahNRO #BreakingNews For Those Living In a Bubble,#TedCruz is NOT, REPEAT, is NOT on the #GOP Ticket for POTUS. This is a recording.
— NetAdvisor.org® (@NetAdvisor) July 21, 2016
We would not rule out Cruz being a possible future Supreme Court Justice for his strong, in-depth Constitutional law knowledge.
I. On Trump vs. Clinton.
And finally, as for Trump, we challenged CNN’s May 17, 2016 prediction that Trump had a 35% chance of winning vs Clinton 65%.
#CNN USER-Opinion Prediction Election 5/17/2016
Hillary 65%
Trump 35%
My predict:#Trump 53#Hillary 44
GOP Other 3%https://t.co/WQCrnfLz23— NetAdvisor.org® (@NetAdvisor) May 18, 2016
Five days later, we stated that Trump’s margin would increase. If one applied the above May 17, 2016 prediction to electoral votes where we said 53% (Trump), 44% (Clinton), actual electoral votes were 56.88% (Trump) verses 43.12% (Clinton). So we were pretty close on the Electoral map in 2016, and at least got the results correct.
The one area were really off was predicting Hillary Clinton’s indictment, and Obama’s support for Bernie Sanders.
@jeniacker @lizzym420 I think high % chance she is indited. BO acting like he supports her now, then move true support for Socialist Bernie.
— NetAdvisor.org® (@NetAdvisor) January 28, 2016
J. On Bernie Sanders.
We feel that then President Obama realized that his “legacy” was at risk, and Clinton “won” the (D) Primary, thus Obama shifted his support to Clinton in attempt to protect his “legacy.”
K. On Clinton Indictment.
This case is not necessary over, and we assumed that investigators, prosecutors and the DOJ would follow existing law. We think millions of people saw what we saw, predicted the same or close to the similar; but none of us work in the major media, have a TV show, so you had to follow our news and commentary on Twitter or read reports here to get further insights 🙂
We generally feel that the same post 2016 pollsters are wrong again about the 2020 election outcome. Part of this is due to poll-oversampling of Democrats which does not give a balanced poll result. We’ll cover more on this later.
[12] Looking for our 2020 Election Predictions?
2016-12-01 Howard Schultz
2016-12-05 Biden
2017-02-08 Michelle Obama
2018-10-12 Michael Bloomberg
2018-10-05 Hillary Clinton
2018-10-15 Elizabeth Warren (would run)
2019-01-12 Julian Castro, Corey Booker, Tulsi Gabbard
2019-01-21 Kamala Harris
2019-02-09 Elizabeth Warren (would lose)
2019-02-20 Beto
2019-06-12 Buttigieg, Sanders, Trump
Everyone else we didn’t bother giving 2020 prediction credit to.
Follow us on Twitter for more….
Graphics copyright by their said respective owners.
Original content copyright © 2016-2019 NetAdvisor.org® All Rights Reserved.
NetAdvisor.org® is a non-profit organization providing public education and analysis primarily on the U.S. financial markets, personal finance and analysis with a transparent look into U.S. public policy. We also perform and report on financial investigations to help protect the public interest. Read More.
