07.07.2011
07.11.2011 jobs update (page bottom w/ report & video)
White House Town Hall on Twitter – Fact Check
original article written by Net Advisor™
The President hit the social media website, Twitter in a Town Hall on July 6, 2011. The event was moderated by Twitter founder Mr. Jack “John” Dorsey.
There are several debatable answers to questions, but there was one particular and important question and answer that stood out – where are the jobs? The White House should recant or at least clarify their answer.
On Jobs.
Quote:
“From House Speaker John Boehner (R., Ohio):
MR. DORSEY: And our next question comes from someone you may know. This is Speaker [John] Boehner.
Mr. Obama: Oh, there you go. (Laughter.)
Mr. Dorsey: After embarking on a record speaking — spending binge that left us deeper in debt, where are the jobs, question mark. (Laughter.) And I want to note that these characters are his fault. (Laughter.) Not his fault. Not his fault.
Mr. Obama: Yeah. First of all, John obviously needs to work on his typing skills. (Laughter, applause.)
Mr. Dorsey: Yeah.
Mr. Obama: (Chuckles.) (Laughter.) Well, look, the – obviously, John’s the speaker of the House, he’s a Republican, and so this is a slightly skewed question.
But what he’s right about is that we have not seen fast enough job growth relative to the need. I mean, we lost, as I said, 4 million jobs before I took office, before I was sworn in. About 4 million jobs were lost in the few months right after I took office, before our economic policies had a chance to take any effect.
And over the last 15 months, we’ve actually seen 2 million jobs created in the private sector…”
— Source: Wall Street Journal
Fact Check: Obama’s Two Million Jobs?
First of all Mr. Obama, didn’t take the Office in June 2010. Mr. Obama took Office as President in January 2009. So as much as we would like to discount the bad numbers, we have to look at the number during his tenure.
First we will look at the job numbers from Obama’s point of view, then review the data for his entire presidential tenure thus far.
Obama’s Version Fact Check: 2 Million Jobs in Last 15 Months.
The June 2010 unemployment report which reflects previous month’s data (May 2010) showed an increase of 431,000 jobs. That sounds like a lot except that when you look at what kind of jobs were created.
According to CNN, of the 431,000 jobs created 411,000 were temporary government workers for the 2010 Census.
FACT: “Employers added 431,000 jobs in the month (of May 2010), up from 290,000 jobs added in April (2010). It was the biggest gain in jobs since March 2000. But Census hiring was responsible for 411,000 of May’s increase in employment.”
—Source: CNN, 06-04-2010
In fact the U.S. Census sought to hire 800,000 people in 2010 (Source: U.S. Census Report Page 3 Parr 2). These were all short-term jobs, not “Rebuilding America” or creating any long-term employment. That is why President Obama wants to use the last 15 months for job creation because he wants to include all the temporary census workers who are no longer calculating the 2010 Census.
Now let’s take a look at the entire Presidential term to date on the jobs numbers.
FACT: The number of people who were counted as unemployed in January 2009 was 11.6 Million with the unemployment rate at 7.6%.
— Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), U.S. Department of Labor, The Unemployment Situation Report, Jan 2009, page 3 of 30 pages, PDF.
The Obama Administration did not count an additional 2.1 Million people whom they acknowledge no longer have a job (thus unemployed), wanted employment, was able and ready for work (Source: BLS Jan 2009 Report, page 3, PDF). For government statistical reasoning, these people are not counted as “unemployed.”
Assuming we have the correct unemployment numbers from the BLS and count everyone who actually had a job, but now is unemployed, that amounts to 13.6 Million persons (Math: 11.6 Million government acknowledged as being unemployed +2.1 million unemployed persons not being counted as unemployed persons = 11.6 million unemployed persons).
FACT: The number of people who were counted as unemployed in May 2011 was 13.9 Million with the unemployment rate at 9.1%.
— Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor, The Unemployment Situation Report, May 2011, page 1 of 4 pages, PDF.
The Obama Administration did not count an additional 2.2 Million people whom they acknowledge no longer have a job (thus unemployed), wanted employment, was able and ready for work (Source: BLS Jan 2009 Report, page 3, PDF). For government statistical reasoning, these people are not counted as “unemployed.”
Again, assuming we have the correct unemployment numbers from the BLS and count everyone who actually had a job, but now is unemployed, that amounts to 16.1 Million persons (Math: 13.9 Million government acknowledged as being unemployed +2.2 million unemployed persons not being counted as unemployed persons = 16.1 million unemployed persons).
We will give Mr. Obama the 2 Million claimed jobs, even though the data does not seem to support it.
Math 101: Facts (Derived from BLS.gov data cited above)
January 2009 Unemployed Persons: Counted: 11.6 Million; Not Counted: 2.1 Million; Total Unemployed: 11.6 Million; Unemployment Rate: 7.6%
May 2011 Unemployed Persons: Counted: 13.9 Million; Not Counted: 2.2 Million; Total Unemployed: 16.1 Million; Unemployment Rate: 9.1%
FACT: The number of unemployed persons who were counted from January 2009 to May 2011 INCREASED by 2.3 Million. This is a NET LOSS of 2.3 Million jobs despite any jobs gains claimed by the Obama Administration.
FACT: The number of unemployed persons who were NOT counted from January 2009 to May 2011 also INCREASED by 100,000 persons. Thus, by government’s own admission, the number of not counted unemployed persons increased by 100,000.
FACT: The unemployment rate, based on the government’s own data, INCREASED from 7.6% to 9.1% — a 19.74% rise in the unemployment rate. [More Math: 9.1 – 7.6 = 1.5; 1.5 divided by 7.6 = .197368, rounded to 19.74%.]
It should also be noted that the unemployment rate is based on counted unemployed persons. The 2 million+ people who are unemployed ready for work are not counted in the government’s official unemployment rate.
RESULT SUMMARY
Thus regardless of any claims of job gains, the net result from gains and losses are more job losses, more people not being counted as unemployed and a higher unemployment rate.
[All data cited from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor, The Unemployment Situation Report in the appropriate period.]
07.11.2011 JOBS UPDATE _____________________________________________
Friday, July 8, 2011 Employment Situation Report:
1. Only 18,000 Jobs were created in June, far below expectation of at least 100,000 according to Reuters. CNBC’s guests estimated 88,000 to 162,000 new jobs for June (see video below).
2. 2.7 Million people not counted as unemployed.
3. Long-term unemployment (over 27 weeks) = 44.4% of the unemployed.
4. Since March 2011, the number of unemployed persons INCREASED by 545,000 people.
5. The unemployment rate climbed to 9.2%
The stock market sold off on the disappointing jobs report (Source: CNN).
[Data Source: BLS.gov – PDF (4pps) – highlight added]
Watch the video reaction: 07-08-2011
Main part of video to watch: 0:03 to 2:31. Also Note: Look at the bottom right corner of CNBC video where the futures markets were trading up on the expectation of a decent jobs report, then tanked after reality hit the market.
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Further Reading – Unemployment Reports: Analysis
- How The Obama Administration is Misleading The American Public About Jobs (02.17.2010)
- “Weather” or Not It’s Jobs, It’s Jobs (03.05.2010)
- The May Jobs Report: A Mythical Bull (06.05.2010)
- Depth of Unemployment Far Worse Than the Data Suggests (10.26.2010)
- Jobless Claims – Volatile Like a Tech Stock or Just Not Accurate? (03.10.2011)
Image: Screenshot White House Town Hall @Twitter.com
Video Courtesy: CNBC
Article content copyright © 2011 Net Advisor™
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