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Jobless Claims – Volatile Like a Tech Stock or Just Not Accurate?

March 10th, 2011
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States with 10%+ unemployment rate in dark blue.

 

03.10.2010

Jobless Claims – Volatile Like a Tech Stock or Just Not Accurate?

original article written by Net Advisor

Last week jobless claims in the U.S. allegedly fell to a two year low.

“Economists polled by Reuters had expected a rise of 175,000 in February. The January figure was revised higher to 189,000 from 187,000.”

— Source: Reuters, TH 03-02-2011

The U.S. stock market indicated by the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) shot up 190 points in a single day in large part to the great jobs numbers (Source: CNN). We’ll we have a difficult time buying into the employment numbers since millions of people are not counted.

So just one week exactly after the bullish jobs report, the latest  jobs report show just the opposite:

“Initial claims for state unemployment benefits increased 26,000 to a seasonally adjusted 397,000, the Labor Department said, after falling to a 2-1/2 year low the prior week.”

— Source: Reuters, TH 03-11-2011

These are huge swings in unemployment and it is hard to believe that we can go from adding 175,000 jobs in the month of February to suddenly have new jobless claims totaling 397,000 just in the last week. We are not the only ones who thinks this is odd:

“…the financial markets dismissed last Friday’s jobs report for January as too confusing.”

—- Source: Politico (PDF)

The Dow fell over 225 points today, a 100%+ reversal on last Thursday, but the move was largely in part of Spain receiving a credit downgrade, and words Saudi Day of Rage coming 03-11-2011.  But oil prices also fell when the Dow was up 190 last Thursday, March 3, 21010. So oil prices seem to have nothing to do with jobs or the Dow.

Clearly, as we have been reporting since February 17, 2010, the jobs numbers are being manipulated for what could arguably be called political re-election gain.

It’s an election year, and historically when the economy is down and unemployment is high, that does not bode well for those who are currently sitting in the White House. This was also true in the latest mid-term elections. If you are desperate to get re-elected, do you then put out job numbers that sound better than they really are?

But when you have to show that job numbers are really worse than they really are, that begs the question: What are the real unemployment numbers?

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  1. Jones Sabo
    May 3rd, 2013 at 07:25 | #1

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